May 20th, 2005 – San Juan, Costa Rica – Despite a stunning victory in the Derby as a 50-1 long shot, Giacomo currently lists longer odds (6/1) from online sportsbook bodoglife.com for this Saturday’s Preakness Stakes than three horses he defeated: Afleet Alex (5-2), High Fly (9-2) and Closing Argument (5-1).
‘Most bettors go with the expected favorite,’ said Calvin Ayre, Bodog Founder and CEO. ‘The Preakness has always been a gambler’s race for a host of reasons. Coming just two weeks after we’ve seen many of these horses run in the Derby, the Preakness is a shorter race with a more limited field.’ He added that many of the factors that lead to upsets like the Derby were eliminated. ‘In this race,’ he said, ‘the betting strongly favors the favorites.’
Giacomo’s unexpected victory at Churchill Downs also made a winner of online sportsbooks like bodoglife.com, resulting in a 40 percent hold (profit). The average hold on a horse race for the Internet books is just shy of 20 percent.
A long shot w’n at Saturday’s Preakness may prove to be even more profitable yet. Ayre says wagering on the Preakness is likely to be even greater than the Derby because many more people will be motivated to bet long shots with the hope of striking it rich.
The last time the Derby winner did not go off as the Preakness favorite was 2001, when Monarchos was the slight second choice behind Point Given, who won the race.
Ayre added that although six of the last eight horses that won the Kentucky Derby have also won the Preakness, this year’s 50-1 long shot Derby win by Giacomo is likely to mean that trend won’t continue. This is why the horse fell behind three more consistent runners in bodoglife.com’s odds for the Preakness.
Ayre says, ‘We’ll have to wait and see if the betting patterns change that.’
While plenty of sports analysts, writers and commentators are offering their own opinions on the Preakness’ outcome, bodoglife.com lines and odds show what the fans, placing approximately $1 million or more in wagers at Bodog, expect before Saturday’s race.
Malibu Moonshine ; 20-1
High Fly ; 9-2
Noble Causeway ; 10-1
Greeley’s Galaxy ; 13-1
Scrappy T ; 20-1
Hal’s Image ; 50-1
Closing Argument ; 5-1
Galloping Grocer ; 30-1
Wilko ; 10-1
Sun King ; 15-1
High Limit ; 12-1
Afleet Alex; 5-2
Giacomo ; 6-1
Going Wild ; 30-1
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